Market Macro Hub
TradingView Indicator Guide

Your indicators, explained simply.

Every Market Macro Hub indicator, explained like you've never traded before. Each one has a plain-English summary, a bit on what it's actually telling you, and a colour key so you know what's good and what's bad at a glance.

New to all of this? Start with the guides marked BEGINNER, then work upwards. The advanced tools will still be here when you're ready for them, and the Jargon Buster at the bottom of the index translates every technical word you'll meet.

GREEN supportive / improving
AMBER mixed / no clear signal
RED risk / deteriorating
every guide speaks the same traffic-light language
25 indicators  ·  click any indicator to read its guide
01

MMH Inflation Model

Inflation

A live scoreboard for US inflation, showing whether the prices of everyday things are heating up or cooling down.

What it actually is

Inflation just means how fast prices are rising. When you hear "CPI" or "PCE" on the news, those are the official measures of that, one for shoppers, one the Fed watches most closely. This indicator pulls in all the main ones and puts them in a single table on your chart, so instead of hunting for six numbers you get them in one place, updated automatically.

It also colours everything in for you. Red means inflation is getting worse (rising), green means it's getting better (falling). You don't need to do any maths, the indicator does it and paints the answer.

How to use it

Look at the big word at the top of the table called IMPULSE. That one word is the summary of everything below it, it's the fastest read on which way inflation is heading right now.

ACCELERATING
Inflation is rising. This usually pushes interest rates up, which tends to be bad for stocks and bonds.
MIXED
No clear direction. Some measures up, some down, wait for a clearer signal before reading much into it.
COOLING
Inflation is falling. This usually lets interest rates come down, which tends to be good for stocks and bonds.
Why a beginner should care

Inflation is the single biggest thing that moves interest rates, and interest rates move nearly everything else, your mortgage, the stock market, the value of the dollar. Knowing whether inflation is rising or falling gives you the backdrop for almost every other trade or investment decision. This indicator hands you that backdrop in one colour-coded word.

02

MMH Growth Model

Growth

A live scoreboard for the US economy, showing whether growth is speeding up or slowing down.

What it actually is

Growth just means how well the economy is doing: are companies hiring, are factories busy, are people spending. This indicator gathers all the big numbers that answer that question (jobs added, the unemployment rate, GDP, factory surveys and more) and stacks them into one table on your chart, updated automatically, so you don't have to chase eleven different releases.

It colours everything in for you. Green means that number is improving, red means it's getting worse. It even flips the logic where it needs to, so a falling unemployment rate shows up green, because fewer people out of work is a good thing. You don't do any of the maths, the indicator paints the answer.

How to use it

Look at the big word at the top called IMPULSE. That single word sums up every number below it, it's the fastest read on which way the economy is heading right now.

There's also a SAHM box in the top corner. Think of it as a recession smoke alarm built from the unemployment rate: when it lights up red (0.50 or higher), it has flagged the start of every US recession since 1970. Green means all clear.

DETERIORATING
The economy is slowing. This is a warning sign for company profits and often for the stock market.
MIXED
No clear direction. Some numbers up, some down, wait for a clearer signal before reading much into it.
IMPROVING
The economy is speeding up. This usually supports company profits and tends to be good for stocks.
Why a beginner should care

Growth and inflation are the two forces that sit behind almost every market move. Growth tells you how strong the economy is, and that drives company profits, jobs, and how confident everyone feels. Knowing whether it's picking up or fading gives you the other half of the big-picture backdrop, and this indicator hands it to you in one colour-coded word, with a recession alarm attached.

03

MMH SOFR Strip

Rates

A live read on what traders think the Fed will do next, showing whether interest rate cuts or hikes are being priced in.

What it actually is

There's a huge market where traders bet on where US interest rates will be in three months, six months, a year, and further out. Those bets are called SOFR futures, and together they spell out exactly what the market expects the Fed to do at each meeting ahead. This indicator lines up the next twenty of those contracts in one table, so you can see the whole path of expected rates at a glance.

It colours everything in for you. Green means the market is pricing rate cuts (lower rates ahead), red means it's pricing hikes (higher rates ahead). It also rolls itself forward automatically as contracts expire, so there's nothing to maintain.

How to use it

Read the coloured strip left to right: green cells mean cuts are expected, red cells mean hikes. A wall of green means the market thinks the Fed is about to ease.

The chip at the top gives you the headline: whether EASING or TIGHTENING is priced, plus the TERMINAL rate, which is where traders think rates finally land at the end of this cycle. That one number is what the whole bond market is really trading around.

EASING PRICED
The market expects rate cuts. Cheaper borrowing ahead, which usually supports stocks and bonds.
FLAT
Rates are expected to stay roughly where they are. No strong push in either direction.
TIGHTENING PRICED
The market expects rate hikes. Costlier borrowing ahead, which is usually a headwind for stocks and bonds.
Why a beginner should care

The Fed's interest rate is the price of money, and it sits underneath everything: your mortgage, the strength of the dollar, and how expensive stocks are. What matters for markets isn't just today's rate, it's where everyone expects it to go next, because prices move on expectations. This indicator shows you those expectations directly, straight from the market that trades them, so you can see a Fed move coming before it lands.

04

MMH U.S. Forward Curve

Rates

A live picture of the Fed's expected path, drawn as lines that show how far rates are expected to move over the months ahead.

What it actually is

Just like the SOFR Strip, this reads the market where traders bet on future US interest rates, but instead of a table it draws it as a curve. Each line shows how far rates are expected to be from today's level at a chosen point in the future: 3 months out, 6 months, a year, and further. The flat dotted line in the middle is today's rate, so anything below it is cuts, anything above it is hikes.

The shape tells the story at a glance. Lines sloping down mean the market expects the Fed to cut, lines sloping up mean it expects hikes. It rolls forward on its own every month, so the horizons stay accurate without any upkeep.

How to use it

Watch where the lines sit relative to the dotted baseline. Below the line means cuts are priced in, above means hikes. The steeper the slope away from the line, the more aggressive the moves the market expects.

The info box shows the headline: whether EASING or TIGHTENING is priced, the TERMINAL rate (where rates are expected to settle), and a countdown to the next Fed meeting so you know when the next decision lands.

EASING PRICED
Lines sit below the baseline. The market expects rate cuts, which usually supports stocks and bonds.
FLAT
Lines hug the baseline. Rates are expected to hold near today's level, no strong move either way.
TIGHTENING PRICED
Lines sit above the baseline. The market expects rate hikes, which is usually a headwind.
Why a beginner should care

This is the same story as the SOFR Strip, told as a shape rather than a list. Some people read expectations faster as a picture: one glance at whether the curve leans up or down tells you which way the Fed is expected to lean, and how strongly. Because rates sit underneath your mortgage, the dollar, and the price of stocks, seeing that expected path is one of the most useful backdrops a beginner can keep on screen.

05

MMH U.S. Rate Expectations

Rates

A meeting-by-meeting breakdown of what the Fed is expected to do, showing the odds of a cut or hike at each decision ahead.

What it actually is

The Fed only changes interest rates on a handful of scheduled decision days each year, called FOMC meetings. This indicator takes each of those upcoming meetings and shows exactly what the market expects to happen at that specific one: a cut, a hike, or no change, and how likely. It's the same rate-expectations market as the other two rate tools, but broken down date by date instead of as a smooth path.

It draws a bar for each meeting and fills the table for you. Green means a cut is priced for that meeting, red means a hike. Passed meetings drop off on their own, so the board always shows what's still ahead.

How to use it

Read the table top to bottom, one row per meeting. The % of 25 column is the handy one: it turns each meeting into a rough probability, so "80% cut" means the market is fairly sure the Fed cuts at that meeting, while "20%" means it's mostly undecided.

The Cumul column adds it all up, showing how much total change is expected by each date, and the chip at the top tells you whether EASING or TIGHTENING is priced across all the meetings on the board, plus a countdown to the next one.

CUT PRICED
Green bar or row. The market expects the Fed to lower rates at that meeting, which usually helps stocks and bonds.
NO CHANGE
Bar near zero, low percentage. The market expects the Fed to hold steady at that meeting.
HIKE PRICED
Red bar or row. The market expects the Fed to raise rates at that meeting, which is usually a headwind.
Why a beginner should care

Markets often move most not on the Fed's decision itself, but on whether it matches what everyone already expected. This indicator shows you those expectations meeting by meeting, so when a decision day arrives you already know what was priced in, and you can tell a genuine surprise from a move everyone saw coming. That is often the difference between understanding a market reaction and being blindsided by it.

06

MMH U.K. Forward Curve

Rates

The same rate-path picture as the U.S. curve, but for the Bank of England, showing where U.K. interest rates are expected to head.

What it actually is

This is the U.K. version of the Forward Curve. It reads the market where traders bet on future British interest rates and draws it as a curve, with each line showing how far rates are expected to be from today's level at a chosen point ahead: one quarter, two quarters, a year, and beyond. The dotted line in the middle is today's rate, so below it is cuts and above it is hikes.

The U.K.'s central bank is the Bank of England, its rate-setting group is the MPC, and its main benchmark rate is called SONIA (the British equivalent of the U.S. EFFR). Lines sloping down mean the market expects the Bank of England to cut, lines sloping up mean it expects hikes. It rolls forward on its own, so it never goes stale.

How to use it

Read it exactly like the U.S. curve: watch where the lines sit relative to the dotted baseline. Below means cuts are priced, above means hikes, and a steeper slope means bigger expected moves.

The info box shows whether EASING or TIGHTENING is priced, the TERMINAL rate (where U.K. rates are expected to settle), and a countdown to the next MPC meeting.

EASING PRICED
Lines sit below the baseline. The market expects Bank of England rate cuts, usually supportive for U.K. stocks and gilts.
FLAT
Lines hug the baseline. U.K. rates are expected to hold near today's level, no strong move either way.
TIGHTENING PRICED
Lines sit above the baseline. The market expects rate hikes, usually a headwind for U.K. assets.
Why a beginner should care

If you follow the pound, U.K. stocks, or U.K. bonds (gilts), the Bank of England matters to you the same way the Fed matters for U.S. markets. Comparing this curve with the U.S. one also tells you which central bank is expected to move faster, and that gap in expectations is a big driver of the pound-versus-dollar exchange rate. It gives you the U.K. half of the global rates picture in one glance.

07

MMH U.K. Rate Expectations

Rates

A quarter-by-quarter breakdown of what the Bank of England is expected to do, showing where cuts or hikes are being priced in.

What it actually is

This is the U.K. version of Rate Expectations. It takes the market's bets on future British interest rates and breaks them down over time, showing how much of a cut or hike is priced in for the months ahead. The Bank of England's rate-setting group is the MPC, and its benchmark rate is SONIA (the British equivalent of the U.S. EFFR).

One honest difference from the U.S. version: the U.K. data comes in quarterly chunks rather than at each individual meeting, so this tool groups by quarter and tells you how many MPC decisions fall inside each one. It draws a bar per quarter and fills the table. Green means cuts are priced for that quarter, red means hikes. Passed quarters drop off on their own.

How to use it

Read the table top to bottom, one row per quarter. The % of 25 column turns each quarter into a rough probability of a standard rate move, and the In column shows how many MPC meetings sit inside that quarter, so you know how many decisions the number is spread across.

The Cumul column adds it all up, and the chip at the top tells you whether EASING or TIGHTENING is priced overall, with a countdown to the next MPC meeting.

CUTS PRICED
Green bar or row. The market expects the Bank of England to lower rates that quarter, usually supportive for U.K. stocks and gilts.
NO CHANGE
Bar near zero, low percentage. The market expects the Bank of England to hold steady that quarter.
HIKES PRICED
Red bar or row. The market expects the Bank of England to raise rates that quarter, usually a headwind for U.K. assets.
Why a beginner should care

Just like with the Fed, U.K. markets often move on whether the Bank of England matches what was already expected, not just on the decision itself. This tool shows you those expectations ahead of time, so you can tell a real surprise from a move everyone saw coming. Pair it with the U.S. version to see which central bank is expected to move faster, which is one of the biggest forces behind the pound-versus-dollar rate.

08

MMH Eurozone Forward Curve

Rates

The same rate-path picture as the U.S. and U.K. curves, but for the European Central Bank, showing where Eurozone rates are expected to head.

What it actually is

This is the Eurozone version of the Forward Curve. It reads the market where traders bet on future euro-area interest rates and draws it as a curve, with each line showing how far rates are expected to be from today's level at a chosen point ahead: one quarter, two quarters, a year, and beyond. The dotted line in the middle is today's rate, so below it is cuts and above it is hikes.

The Eurozone's central bank is the European Central Bank (ECB), its rate-setting group is the Governing Council (GC), and its main benchmark rate is called €STR (the euro equivalent of the U.S. EFFR). Lines sloping down mean the market expects the ECB to cut, lines sloping up mean it expects hikes. It rolls forward on its own, so it never goes stale.

How to use it

Read it exactly like the U.S. and U.K. curves: watch where the lines sit relative to the dotted baseline. Below means cuts are priced, above means hikes, and a steeper slope means bigger expected moves.

The info box shows whether EASING or TIGHTENING is priced, the TERMINAL rate (where euro-area rates are expected to settle), the ECB's deposit rate (its headline policy rate), and a countdown to the next GC meeting.

EASING PRICED
Lines sit below the baseline. The market expects ECB rate cuts, usually supportive for European stocks and bonds.
FLAT
Lines hug the baseline. Euro-area rates are expected to hold near today's level, no strong move either way.
TIGHTENING PRICED
Lines sit above the baseline. The market expects rate hikes, usually a headwind for European assets.
Why a beginner should care

If you follow the euro or European stocks and bonds, the ECB matters the same way the Fed matters for U.S. markets. Lining this curve up against the U.S. and U.K. ones shows you which of the big three central banks is expected to move fastest, and those gaps in expectations are a major driver of the euro-versus-dollar exchange rate. Together the three curves give you the whole developed-market rates picture at a glance.

09

MMH Eurozone Rate Expectations

Rates

A quarter-by-quarter breakdown of what the European Central Bank is expected to do, showing where cuts or hikes are being priced in.

What it actually is

This is the Eurozone version of Rate Expectations. It takes the market's bets on future euro-area interest rates and breaks them down over time, showing how much of a cut or hike is priced in for the months ahead. The ECB's rate-setting group is the Governing Council (GC), and its benchmark rate is €STR (the euro equivalent of the U.S. EFFR).

Just like the U.K. tool, the euro-area data comes in quarterly chunks rather than at each individual meeting, so this groups by quarter and tells you how many GC decisions fall inside each one. It draws a bar per quarter and fills the table. Green means cuts are priced for that quarter, red means hikes. Passed quarters drop off on their own.

How to use it

Read the table top to bottom, one row per quarter. The % of 25 column turns each quarter into a rough probability of a standard rate move, and the In column shows how many GC meetings sit inside that quarter, so you know how many decisions the number is spread across.

The Cumul column adds it all up, and the chip at the top tells you whether EASING or TIGHTENING is priced overall, along with the ECB's deposit rate and a countdown to the next GC meeting.

CUTS PRICED
Green bar or row. The market expects the ECB to lower rates that quarter, usually supportive for European stocks and bonds.
NO CHANGE
Bar near zero, low percentage. The market expects the ECB to hold steady that quarter.
HIKES PRICED
Red bar or row. The market expects the ECB to raise rates that quarter, usually a headwind for European assets.
Why a beginner should care

As with the Fed and the Bank of England, euro-area markets often move on whether the ECB matches what was already expected, not just on the decision itself. This tool shows you those expectations ahead of time, so you can tell a real surprise from a move everyone saw coming. Set it beside the U.S. and U.K. versions to see which central bank is expected to move fastest, one of the biggest forces behind the euro-versus-dollar rate.

10

MMH Japan Forward Curve

Rates

The same rate-path picture as the other curves, but for the Bank of Japan, showing where Japanese interest rates are expected to head.

What it actually is

This is the Japan version of the Forward Curve. It reads the market where traders bet on future Japanese interest rates and draws it as a curve, with each line showing how far rates are expected to be from today's level at a chosen point ahead: one quarter, two quarters, a year, and beyond. The dotted line in the middle is today's rate, so below it is cuts and above it is hikes.

Japan's central bank is the Bank of Japan (BoJ), its rate-setting meeting is the MPM, and its main benchmark rate is called TONA (the yen equivalent of the U.S. EFFR). Lines sloping down mean the market expects the BoJ to cut, lines sloping up mean it expects hikes. It rolls forward on its own, so it never goes stale.

How to use it

Read it exactly like the other curves: watch where the lines sit relative to the dotted baseline. Below means cuts are priced, above means hikes, and a steeper slope means bigger expected moves.

The info box shows whether EASING or TIGHTENING is priced, the TERMINAL rate (where Japanese rates are expected to settle), the BoJ's policy rate, and a countdown to the next MPM meeting.

EASING PRICED
Lines sit below the baseline. The market expects BoJ rate cuts, which for Japan tends to weaken the yen.
FLAT
Lines hug the baseline. Japanese rates are expected to hold near today's level, no strong move either way.
TIGHTENING PRICED
Lines sit above the baseline. The market expects rate hikes, which for Japan tends to strengthen the yen.
Why a beginner should care

Japan is the odd one out. For decades its rates sat at zero or below, and it's the world's cheapest place to borrow, so investors borrow yen for next to nothing and buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. That's called the carry trade, and it quietly funds a huge amount of global markets. When this curve shows the BoJ finally hiking, that cheap funding gets more expensive, which can force those trades to unwind and send shockwaves well beyond Japan. Watching Japan's expected path is how you see one of the market's biggest hidden risks building.

11

MMH Japan Rate Expectations

Rates

A quarter-by-quarter breakdown of what the Bank of Japan is expected to do, showing where cuts or hikes are being priced in.

What it actually is

This is the Japan version of Rate Expectations. It takes the market's bets on future Japanese interest rates and breaks them down over time, showing how much of a cut or hike is priced in for the months ahead. The BoJ's rate-setting meeting is the MPM, and its benchmark rate is TONA (the yen equivalent of the U.S. EFFR).

Like the U.K. and Eurozone tools, the Japanese data comes in quarterly chunks rather than at each individual meeting, so this groups by quarter and tells you how many MPM decisions fall inside each one. It draws a bar per quarter and fills the table. Green means cuts are priced for that quarter, red means hikes. Passed quarters drop off on their own.

How to use it

Read the table top to bottom, one row per quarter. The % of 25 column turns each quarter into a rough probability of a standard rate move, and the In column shows how many MPM meetings sit inside that quarter, so you know how many decisions the number is spread across.

The Cumul column adds it all up, and the chip at the top tells you whether EASING or TIGHTENING is priced overall, along with the BoJ's policy rate and a countdown to the next MPM meeting.

CUTS PRICED
Green bar or row. The market expects the BoJ to lower rates that quarter, which for Japan tends to weaken the yen.
NO CHANGE
Bar near zero, low percentage. The market expects the BoJ to hold steady that quarter.
HIKES PRICED
Red bar or row. The market expects the BoJ to raise rates that quarter, which for Japan tends to strengthen the yen.
Why a beginner should care

Japan is the one to watch closely, because it's the world's source of cheap money. For years investors have borrowed yen for almost nothing to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere, the carry trade, and this table shows exactly when the market expects that cheap borrowing to end. A quarter that suddenly turns red with hikes priced is an early warning that those trades could unwind, which has sent shockwaves through global markets before. It's the clearest early read on one of the market's biggest hidden risks.

12

MMH Sector Performance

Equities

A live leaderboard of the U.S. stock market's twelve sectors, showing which parts of the market are leading and which are lagging.

What it actually is

The stock market isn't one single thing. It's split into sectors: technology, energy, banks, healthcare, and so on. At any given time some are running hot and others are cold. This indicator tracks all twelve at once, draws each as its own line, and ranks them in a table from best to worst performer over the period you choose.

It colours everything in for you. Green means a sector is up, red means it's down, and a benchmark line (SPY, which tracks the whole market) shows you what the average looks like, so you can instantly see who's beating the market and who's dragging.

How to use it

Read the leaderboard top to bottom: number one is the strongest sector, the bottom is the weakest. The vs SPY column tells you whether each sector is beating or lagging the overall market.

The chip at the top shows BREADTH: how many of the twelve sectors are beating the market. When lots of sectors are winning (BROAD), the rally is healthy and widespread. When only a few are (NARROW), the market is being carried by a handful of names, which is often a more fragile setup.

BROAD
Most sectors are beating the market. A healthy, widely-supported rally, usually a risk-on backdrop.
MIXED
Leadership is split. Roughly half the sectors are winning, no clear risk-on or risk-off tilt.
NARROW
Only a few sectors are beating the market. The rally is thin and carried by a handful of names, often more fragile.
Why a beginner should care

Which sectors lead tells you what kind of market you're in. When technology and consumer sectors lead, investors are feeling confident and reaching for growth. When utilities, staples, and healthcare lead, they're playing defence and bracing for trouble. Reading that rotation gives you the market's mood before the headlines catch up, and the breadth reading warns you when a rising market is healthier or shakier than it looks on the surface.

13

MMH Sector Heatmap

Equities

A colour-coded grid of every sector's returns across five time windows, showing at a glance where the market is hot and where it's cold.

What it actually is

This is the companion to the Sector Performance leaderboard. Instead of ranking sectors over one period, it lays them out as a grid: each sector is a row, and each column is a different time window (1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and year-to-date). Every cell is shaded by how strong the move was.

Green means up, red means down, and the deeper the colour the bigger the move. A faint number is a small change, a bold bright cell is a powerful one. One look tells you which sectors are running and which are stuck, without reading a single number.

How to use it

Scan across a row to see whether a sector's strength is consistent: green all the way across means steady, reliable leadership, while green in the short columns but red in the long ones means a recent bounce in something that's been weak. Comparing columns shows you whether the market's mood has shifted lately, if the 1-week column looks very different from the 3-month one, something is turning.

The chip at the top calls out the month's LEADER and LAGGARD, plus how many sectors are up, a quick breadth check.

GREEN CELL
That sector is up over that time window. A row full of green is strong, consistent leadership.
FAINT / MIXED
Small move, or green in some windows and red in others. No clear trend, or a shift in progress.
RED CELL
That sector is down over that time window. A row full of red is persistent weakness.
Why a beginner should care

Seeing performance across several time windows at once is what separates a real trend from a one-off pop. A sector that's green across every column has genuine, durable momentum. One that's only green this week might just be bouncing. This grid trains your eye to spot which strength is worth trusting, and reading the colours flowing from the short windows to the long ones shows you money rotating between sectors before it shows up in any headline.

14

MMH Sector Driver Monitor

Equities

A check on WHY each sector is moving, showing whether it's following its usual economic driver, just riding the market, or breaking away on its own.

What it actually is

Each sector usually has one big thing behind it. Energy tends to follow the oil price, banks follow interest rates, materials follow copper, and so on. This is the most advanced tool in the set, and its whole job is to ask a simple question for every sector: is it moving for its normal reason, or not?

For each sector it compares today's move against two things: its usual driver, and the overall market. Then it labels what's really going on. It's less about "up or down" and more about why, which is the question that usually matters once you're past the basics.

How to use it

Read the Signal column, it sorts each sector into one of three stories. The Driver column tells you which economic force each sector is being measured against, and the Resid column measures how far a sector has broken away from what its driver and the market can explain.

The DIVG flags are the interesting ones: a sector doing something its usual driver and the market don't explain. That's not automatically good or bad, it's a nudge to go and find out why, because it often means something specific is happening in that one corner of the market.

TRACK
The sector is following its usual driver as expected. The normal relationship is alive and working.
BETA
The sector is mostly just moving with the overall market right now, not its own driver. No special story.
DIVG
The sector has broken away from what its driver and the market explain. Something specific is going on, worth investigating.
Why a beginner should care

Knowing a sector went up is easy. Knowing why is what actually helps you. This tool trains you to see the machinery underneath the market: that banks and interest rates move together, that energy lives and dies with oil. Once you can see those links, a move stops being random noise and starts telling a story. And when a sector suddenly stops following its driver, this flags it early, which is often the first clue that a theme is starting or ending.

15

MMH Factor Leadership

Equities

A read on which STYLE of stock is winning right now, showing whether investors are being aggressive or playing it safe.

What it actually is

Beyond sectors, stocks can be grouped by style, called factors. Are they cheap bargains (value) or fast growers (growth)? Rock-solid companies (quality) or riskier, punchier ones (high beta)? Small companies (small caps) or recent winners (momentum)? This indicator tracks all of those and shows which style is beating the overall market and which is lagging.

Everything is measured against the market as the zero line, so a line above zero means that style is outperforming, below means it's lagging. It's not about whether stocks are up or down, it's about which kind of stock is in favour.

How to use it

The table ranks the styles best to worst, but the real value is in the chip at the top, which reads two classic mood gauges. Growth vs Value tells you what investors are reaching for, and High Beta vs Quality is the big one: when riskier stocks lead, the market is in a confident, risk-on mood; when safe, high-quality stocks lead, it's turning defensive.

The Accel arrow shows whether a style's leadership is speeding up or fading, so you can catch a shift while it's still building.

RISK-ON
High beta and growth are leading. Investors are confident and reaching for return, usually a supportive backdrop.
MIXED
No clear style leadership. The aggressive and defensive styles are roughly balanced, no strong tilt.
DEFENSIVE
Quality and value are leading. Investors are playing it safe, often a sign of caution building under the surface.
Why a beginner should care

The market can be rising while quietly turning cautious underneath, and this is where you'd spot it first. If the overall index is flat but investors are fleeing risky stocks for safe ones, that defensive shift often warns of trouble before prices fall. Reading factor leadership tells you not just whether the market is up, but whether people are feeling brave or scared, and that mood is one of the most reliable tells in all of investing.

16

MMH Return & Volatility

Volatility

A read on how far something has moved AND how bumpy the ride was, telling you whether a move is a clean trend or just noise.

What it actually is

Two numbers describe any move. Return is how far the price travelled over your chosen period. Volatility is how shaky the journey was to get there. This indicator measures both for whatever you put on your chart (a stock, an index, a currency) and puts them side by side.

The trick is comparing them. A big gain with low volatility is a smooth, reliable trend. The same gain with wild volatility is a nervous, choppy market that just happened to end up higher. Green means moving up, red means moving down, and a bright bar means the move is clean while a faded one means it's noisy.

How to use it

Look at the Regime word in the table, it sums everything up. It tells you not just the direction but the character of the move: a smooth uptrend, a choppy one, a slow grind down, or a stressed selloff.

The Vol %ile line is also worth a glance: it shows whether today's volatility is LOW, NORMAL, or HIGH compared to this market's own history, so you know if things are unusually calm or unusually wild right now.

TRENDING UP
Rising with volatility smaller than the gain. A clean, steady uptrend, the healthiest kind of move.
CHOPPY
Big swings relative to how far it actually got. Direction is unclear, be cautious about reading a trend into it.
STRESSED DOWN
Falling with high volatility. The classic panic or risk-off pattern, when fear is driving the move.
Why a beginner should care

Beginners tend to look only at whether something went up or down, but how it moved matters just as much. A calm, steady climb is far more trustworthy than a violent one that ends up in the same place, because the calm move is more likely to continue. Volatility is also the market's fear gauge: when it spikes, people are scared, and scared markets behave very differently. Learning to read return and volatility together is one of the fastest ways to stop being surprised by the market.

17

MMH Cross-Asset Correlations

Cross-Asset

A live read on whether stocks, bonds, and the dollar are moving together or apart, and whether your safety net still works.

What it actually is

Correlation just measures whether two things move in the same direction or opposite ones. This indicator tracks that for the three biggest markets: stocks, bonds, and the U.S. dollar, and shows how each pair is behaving right now.

The headline is the stock-bond relationship. Normally when stocks fall, bonds rise, so holding both cushions the blow, which is the whole idea behind the classic "60/40" portfolio. When that protection is working the reading is negative, when it breaks and both fall together the reading turns positive, and the indicator colours it accordingly.

How to use it

Watch the chip at the top: it tells you in plain words whether the bond hedge is intact (bonds still protect you when stocks drop) or broken (stocks and bonds falling together, which leaves nowhere to hide).

The Z column flags when a relationship has stretched to an extreme versus its own history, an early warning that the usual rules are changing. The Regime column simply labels each pair as strongly linked, mildly linked, or unrelated.

HEDGE INTACT
Stocks and bonds move opposite each other. Your bonds cushion stock losses, the normal, healthy state.
MIXED
The stock-bond link is weak or unclear. Bonds are offering only partial protection right now.
HEDGE BROKEN
Stocks and bonds falling together. The safety net has failed, the stressful "nowhere to hide" regime.
Why a beginner should care

Most people are told that mixing stocks and bonds keeps them safe, because the two normally zig when the other zags. But that safety net doesn't always hold, and the moments it fails are exactly the painful ones, when everything falls at once. This indicator tells you whether the protection you're counting on is actually working today. Knowing that the usual relationships have broken is often the earliest sign that markets have entered a genuinely stressful regime.

18

MMH Rate of Change

Momentum

A speedometer for any asset, showing how fast it's rising or falling and whether that pace is picking up or easing off.

What it actually is

Rate of Change measures momentum: how much a price has moved over a chosen period, as a percentage. It's less about the price level and more about the speed. This indicator tracks that for any asset you point it at and draws it as bars above and below a zero line.

Above zero (green) means the asset is higher than it was, below zero (red) means lower. But the clever part is the two-layer read: it watches not just whether the price is up or down, but whether that momentum is building (getting stronger) or fading (running out of steam).

How to use it

Read the State in the table, it combines both layers into one label. "Bull building" means rising and speeding up, the strongest kind of move. "Bull fading" means still up but losing steam, an early warning a rally may be tiring. The same logic works in reverse for down moves.

The zero line is the key level: a cross from below to above means momentum has turned positive, and a cross the other way means it's turned negative.

BULL · BUILDING
Rising and the pace is speeding up. Momentum is strong and gaining, the healthiest kind of move.
FADING / RECOVERING
A move losing steam, or a downtrend starting to heal. A transition, often where trends turn.
BEAR · BUILDING
Falling and the pace is accelerating. Momentum is negative and getting worse, the weakest kind of move.
Why a beginner should care

Trends rarely stop dead, they slow down first, like a car easing off the gas before it brakes. Watching momentum lets you feel that change of pace before the price actually turns. A rally that's still rising but slowing is very different from one that's still accelerating, even though both are green on the day. Learning to read that difference helps you avoid chasing a move right as it's about to run out of fuel.

19

MMH ES-VIX-Credit Z-Scores

Risk

A market mood ring built from three key signals, showing whether investors are feeling brave (risk-on) or scared (risk-off).

What it actually is

Three markets reveal the mood of investors. Stocks (are they buying?), the VIX (Wall Street's fear gauge), and credit (whether investors will lend to riskier companies). When people feel confident all three lean one way, when they're scared they lean the other. This indicator measures each one, lines them up on the same scale, and blends them into a single mood score.

To make them comparable it uses a z-score, which just means "how unusual is this compared to normal?" Green (positive) means risk-on and confident, red (negative) means risk-off and fearful. The VIX is flipped so that all three point the same way, so you never have to do the mental gymnastics yourself.

How to use it

The Composite at the top is the headline mood: one number telling you whether the market is leaning risk-on or risk-off, and how strongly.

The real edge is the Confirms column, which shows whether all three markets agree. When they all point the same way, the mood is solid and trustworthy. When one disagrees (the odd one out), that's worth watching closely, because the market that breaks from the pack is often where the next big move begins.

RISK-ON
Stocks up, fear low, credit healthy. Investors are confident and reaching for return, a supportive backdrop.
MIXED / DIVERGING
The three signals disagree. No clear mood, and the odd one out may be hinting at the next turn.
RISK-OFF
Stocks down, fear high, credit weak. Investors are scared and heading for safety, a defensive backdrop.
Why a beginner should care

Almost every market moves to one big rhythm: risk-on when people are optimistic, risk-off when they're afraid. Getting that backdrop right matters more than any single trade, because it colours everything. This indicator boils that mood down to one honest number drawn from three independent sources, so it's much harder to fool than any one of them alone. And when those sources start to disagree, you get an early hint that the current mood might be about to change.

20

MMH Cross-Asset Performance

Cross-Asset

A single leaderboard for the whole financial world, showing whether money is flowing into stocks, bonds, gold, oil, or the dollar.

What it actually is

The Sector Performance tool ranks the pieces of the stock market. This one zooms all the way out and ranks the big asset classes against each other: stocks, government bonds, gold, silver, oil, copper, the dollar, and more. It puts them all on one leaderboard so you can see, at a glance, what's winning across every corner of markets.

It colours everything for you. Green means up, red means down, and each asset gets its own coloured line, so you can watch them race against each other over the period you choose.

How to use it

Read the leaderboard top to bottom: number one is the strongest asset class, the bottom is the weakest. The chip at the top names the current LEADER and LAGGARD, and shows how many assets are up overall.

The pattern of winners tells a story. Stocks and oil leading points to a growing, confident economy. Gold and bonds leading points to caution and a flight to safety. Reading which group is on top tells you what the whole market is worried about, or excited by, right now.

RISK LEADING
Stocks, oil, and copper on top. Investors are betting on growth, a confident, risk-on backdrop.
MIXED
No clear leadership across asset classes. Growth and safety assets are jumbled together, no strong signal.
SAFETY LEADING
Gold, bonds, and the dollar on top. Investors are seeking shelter, a cautious, risk-off backdrop.
Why a beginner should care

It's easy to get tunnel vision on one market and miss the bigger picture. Money is always flowing somewhere, and where it flows tells you what smart investors collectively believe about the future. When cash pours into gold and bonds while stocks lag, the market is quietly bracing for trouble, no matter how calm the headlines sound. This leaderboard gives you that whole-world view in one glance, so you're never reading a single market in isolation.

21

MMH Macro Factor Regime

Cross-Asset

A dashboard of the eight biggest forces in markets, showing which ones are running unusually hot or cold right now.

What it actually is

Markets are pushed around by a handful of big forces: stocks, the dollar, gold, bond prices, credit, and inflation expectations. This indicator tracks eight of them at once and, for each, asks one question: how far from normal is it right now? It answers with a z-score, a simple measure of "unusualness" where 0 is completely average.

It then ranks all eight from most elevated to most depressed. Green means a force is running above its recent normal, red means below. When a reading pushes past 2 (marked as extreme), that force is stretched far from its usual range, which often precedes a snap back.

How to use it

Read the ranked board top to bottom to see the shape of the current environment: what's hot, what's cold, and how they line up. The chip at the top names the strongest and weakest forces and flags how many are at an extreme.

The extreme readings are the ones to watch. A factor stretched to +2 or −2 is a long way from home, and stretched things tend to revert, so those flags are early clues that a force which has run hard may be due to reverse.

ELEVATED
This force is running above its recent normal. Positive momentum, but watch for it becoming stretched.
NORMAL
Near its typical range. Nothing unusual happening in that force right now.
DEPRESSED
This force is running below its recent normal. Weak, and if stretched to an extreme, potentially due for a bounce.
Why a beginner should care

Instead of watching eight charts and trying to judge each one by eye, this puts every major force on the same "how unusual is this?" scale and stacks them side by side. That's how you spot the whole macro picture at once: whether the environment is calm and balanced, or whether several forces have stretched to extremes together, which is often when big turning points happen. It turns a messy wall of data into one readable snapshot of what the market is really doing.

22

MMH Dispersion & Rotation

Regime

A read on whether sectors are moving independently or all in lockstep, telling you if it's a stock-picker's market or a macro-driven one.

What it actually is

Sometimes the parts of the market go their own separate ways: tech zigs while energy zags. Other times everything moves together, up or down as one. This indicator measures which of those two worlds you're in by watching how spread out the sectors are (dispersion) and how much they move together (correlation).

It blends those into a single regime call. ROTATION (green) means sectors are moving independently, so picking the right ones matters. MACRO EVENT (red) means they're all marching in lockstep, usually because one big force (a rate scare, a shock) is driving the whole market at once.

How to use it

Read the regime word at the top of the table. In a ROTATION regime, which sector or stock you own is what drives your returns, this is the environment where good stock-picking pays off. In a MACRO EVENT regime, everything moves together, so being in the market at all matters far more than which piece you hold, and risk is more systematic.

The background shading and flip labels mark the moment the regime changes, so you can see a shift the day it happens.

ROTATION
Sectors moving apart on their own paths. A stock-picker's market where choosing the right names is rewarded.
MIXED
In between, the market is transitioning. Watch for it to resolve toward rotation or macro.
MACRO EVENT
Sectors moving in lockstep, driven by one big force. Systematic risk is high and there are few places to hide.
Why a beginner should care

The same strategy can win in one regime and lose in the other, and most beginners never realise the regime even changed. Carefully picking individual sectors is powerful during rotation but almost pointless during a macro event, when a single force drags everything the same way. Knowing which world you're in tells you whether to focus on what you own or simply on how much risk you're taking, and a shift to lockstep is also one of the clearest early warnings that broad, systematic stress is building.

23

MMH Dispersion Trade Edge

Volatility

A specialist signal that spots when the individual sectors are far jumpier than the index as a whole, a classic professional trading edge.

What it actually is

This is the most advanced, professional tool in the set, so don't worry if the details take a while to click. The core idea is simple though: sometimes each sector is wild on its own, but the overall index stays calm because their moves cancel each other out. When that happens, there's an edge for options traders, and this indicator measures exactly when it appears.

It compares how jumpy the sectors are (their volatility) against how jumpy the index is, and how much they move together. ALPHA (green) means the sectors are far more volatile than the index, the setup where a "dispersion trade" pays off. MACRO (red) means everything is moving together, when index protection is the better play instead.

How to use it

Read the regime and Strategy line in the dashboard. In an ALPHA regime it points toward selling volatility on the index while buying it on individual names, capturing the gap between them. In a MACRO regime it flips: buy index protection and avoid the single-name bets, because the whole market is moving as one.

If options trading isn't your thing, you can still use it as a plain regime read: ALPHA means a healthy stock-picker's market, MACRO means one big force is driving everything.

ALPHA
Sectors much jumpier than the index. The dispersion edge is live: sell index vol, buy single-name vol.
TRANSITION
The regime is shifting between alpha and macro. Monitor, but no clean edge yet.
MACRO
Sectors and index moving together. Index protection dominates, avoid the single-name bets.
Why a beginner should care

Even if you never place a dispersion trade, this teaches a genuinely important idea: the index can look calm on the surface while a storm rages underneath in the individual pieces, or the reverse. That gap between the whole and its parts is where a lot of professional money is made, and simply being aware it exists changes how you read a "quiet" market. Treat this one as a window into how the pros think about volatility, and grow into the trading side as you learn.

24

MMH Seasonality

Seasonality

A history of how an asset has tended to perform in each month or weekday, showing which parts of the calendar have been kind or cruel.

What it actually is

Markets have calendar habits. Some months have historically tended to be strong, others weak, and the same can be true of days of the week. This indicator digs through years of history for any asset and works out the average return for each period, so you can see those patterns laid out plainly.

For each month (or weekday) it shows three things: the average return, the hit rate (how often that period was positive), and how many years went into the sample. Green means historically positive, red means historically negative, and it highlights where we are in the calendar right now.

How to use it

Look at the current period, highlighted in the table, to see what history says about the weeks ahead. A strong average with a high hit rate (say 70% positive over 15 years) is a genuine tailwind worth noting. A weak one is a headwind to be aware of.

Always check the n column, the sample size. A pattern built on 20 years of data is far more trustworthy than one from just 3. And treat seasonality as one gentle input among many, never a standalone reason to trade.

STRONG
This period has historically averaged solid gains with a high hit rate. A seasonal tailwind, but not a guarantee.
NEUTRAL
No meaningful seasonal edge either way. History offers little signal for this period.
WEAK
This period has historically averaged losses or a low hit rate. A seasonal headwind to keep in mind.
Why a beginner should care

Seasonality is a fun and useful piece of context, but it comes with a big warning: the past is a guide, not a promise. A month that has risen 12 of the last 15 years can still fall this time, and betting the farm on a calendar pattern is a classic beginner mistake. Used properly, it adds a layer of awareness, knowing you're heading into a historically rough stretch makes you a little more careful, and knowing you're in a strong one adds confidence to a trade you already like for other reasons. Let it tilt the odds, never make the decision.

25

MMH Correlation

Cross-Asset

A simple tool to measure how closely any two markets move together, pick a pair and see if they're friends, strangers, or opposites.

What it actually is

Where the Cross-Asset Correlations tool watches a fixed set of markets, this one is fully flexible: you choose any two assets and it measures how they move relative to each other. Point it at a stock and gold, the dollar and oil, or any pair you're curious about.

The result is a single number between +1 and −1. +1 (green) means they move in perfect lockstep, −1 (red) means they move in exact opposite directions, and 0 means they're unrelated. It tracks this over time so you can see the relationship strengthen, weaken, or flip.

How to use it

The Correlation value and Regime label give you the headline: are these two strongly linked, loosely linked, or unrelated? The Δ 5-bar column shows whether the relationship is tightening or loosening lately.

This is especially useful for spotting real diversification. Two things you own that are strongly positively correlated aren't really separate bets, they'll rise and fall together. A negative correlation means one tends to cushion the other, which is what genuine diversification looks like.

POSITIVE
The two move together, up and down as a pair. Holding both gives you less diversification than it looks.
UNCORRELATED
The two move independently. Their relationship is weak, so each is its own separate bet.
NEGATIVE
The two move in opposite directions. One tends to rise when the other falls, real diversification.
Why a beginner should care

People often think they're spreading their risk by owning several things, then get a nasty surprise when everything drops at once, because those things were secretly moving together all along. Checking correlation before you assume you're diversified is one of the most practical habits in investing. It also reveals hidden relationships across markets, like how the dollar and gold or stocks and bonds interact, which is the foundation for understanding how the whole financial system fits together.

A-Z

Jargon Buster

Reference

Every technical word used across these guides, translated into plain English in one place.

How to use this page

Skim it once, then come back whenever a guide uses a word you don't recognise. Nothing here needs memorising, it will all become second nature just by using the indicators.

Rates & central banks
Central bank
A country's bank for banks. It sets the base interest rate that everything else is priced off. The big four: the Fed (U.S.), the Bank of England (U.K.), the ECB (Eurozone) and the Bank of Japan.
The Fed / FOMC
America's central bank, the Federal Reserve. The FOMC is the committee inside it that actually votes on interest rates, at eight scheduled meetings a year.
CPI / PCE
The two main measures of U.S. inflation. CPI is the one in the headlines, PCE is the one the Fed officially targets.
Easing / tightening
Easing means cutting interest rates (cheaper money). Tightening means raising them (dearer money).
Priced in
Already reflected in today's prices. If a rate cut is fully priced in and then happens, markets may barely move. Surprises are what move prices.
Terminal rate
Where the market thinks interest rates will finally settle at the end of the current cutting or hiking cycle.
SOFR / EFFR
The U.S. overnight benchmark interest rates. EFFR is the classic policy-linked rate, SOFR is the modern one that futures contracts settle on.
SONIA / €STR / TONA
The U.K., euro-area and Japanese equivalents of the U.S. overnight rate.
Forward curve
A line built from futures prices showing where the market expects interest rates to sit at each point in the future.
Gilts
U.K. government bonds, the British equivalent of U.S. Treasuries.
Carry trade
Borrowing in a cheap currency (usually yen) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It works quietly for years and unwinds violently when the cheap funding ends.
Sahm rule
A recession alarm built from the unemployment rate. It has flagged the start of every U.S. recession since 1970.
Stocks & styles
Sector
A slice of the stock market grouped by business type: technology, energy, banks, healthcare and so on.
Breadth
How many parts of the market are joining a move. Broad participation is healthy, narrow participation is fragile.
Factor / style
A way of grouping stocks by character rather than industry: value, growth, quality, momentum, small caps, high beta.
Beta / high beta
How much a stock moves relative to the market. High beta means amplified moves (aggressive), low beta means steadier ones (defensive).
Momentum
The speed of a price move rather than its level. Building momentum means a trend is strengthening, fading means it's running out of fuel.
Hit rate
How often something worked historically. Positive in 12 of the last 15 years is an 80% hit rate.
Risk & statistics
Volatility
How violently a price swings around, regardless of direction. Think of it as the market's nerves.
VIX
Wall Street's fear gauge: the market's estimate of how bumpy the S&P 500 will be over the next 30 days, taken from options prices.
Credit / spreads
The extra yield investors demand to lend to riskier companies. Widening spreads mean lenders are getting nervous, an early stress signal.
Z-score
A measure of how unusual something is. 0 is completely normal, +2 or −2 is a long way from normal. It puts different markets on one comparable scale.
Correlation
Whether two things move together (+1), independently (0) or in opposite directions (−1).
Dispersion
How spread out the sectors' returns are. High dispersion means everything is on its own path, low means lockstep.
Risk-on / risk-off
The market's mood. Risk-on means confident and reaching for return, risk-off means scared and hiding in safety.
Hedge
A holding that tends to rise when the rest of your portfolio falls, cushioning the blow. Bonds are the classic stock hedge, when the relationship holds.
Diversification
Spreading risk across things that genuinely move differently. Owning five things that all move together is one bet wearing five costumes.